There were 4,564,000 children in state nurseries and primary schools in England and Wales in 2024, according to annual statistics published by the Department for Education.
The projected data for 2025 is expected to see that fall by 42,000 to 4,522,000.
In 2023, birth rates – which have been falling for several years – hit an all-time low in England and Wales. It was a similar picture in Scotland, and it is expected that trend will continue at least for the next few years.
Primary schools are closing, or merging with neighbouring schools, across the country because of falling birth rates, but some areas are more badly affected than others.
Research from the Education Policy Institute suggests that, at a council level, Lambeth in London will see the biggest drop in primary school pupils by 2028, followed by the Isle of Wight and then Brighton and Hove. But there are some places where numbers are actually expected to grow – in Central Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire and Leicestershire, for example.
It means competition for places will vary depending on where you live.
